Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
